# Beacon brief: Wednesday, September 30, 2026

> Issue 25 of the Beacon brief leads with: LNG Canada partners take FID on Phase 2: two more trains at Kitimat for 28 million tonnes a year, fed by a Coastal GasLink expansion built on compression, not new pipe

- Label: Fact
- Type: Brief
- Published: 2026-09-30T09:00:00+04:00
- By: Winda Beacon newsroom
- Topics: LNG, Pipelines, Refining
- Canonical: https://beacon.winda.ai/briefs/2026-09-30/

## operations

- Saudi Aramco notified customers on the evening of September 28 of its October loading schedule from Yanbu, an Asian refining source told Reuters, and Kpler counted 12.5 million barrels loaded onto nine tankers at Yanbu from Saturday through Monday. Kpler expects throughput on the East-West line to climb to 3 million to 4 million barrels a day in the coming days and said a full return to the pre-attack rate of about 5.5 million could take another month. Crude loadings at Egypt's Sidi Kerir resumed on September 22 after a 10-day halt, with tankers still queued offshore. Brent fell 2.6 percent to $102.59 and WTI 3.5 percent to $89.38 on Tuesday as the Red Sea exports recovered, per CNBC. Separately, one of five people who told Reuters Aramco is weighing discounts for second-half October cargoes loaded off Oman put the figure at about $9 a barrel, against premiums of $10 to $20 over OSP charged in recent weeks. [1]
  - Analysis: An October loading schedule is a commercial commitment, not a test, so the Red Sea exit is back in Aramco's supply plan; Kpler's one-month estimate for a full return is the date to hold the line to. If Yanbu ramps as Kpler expects, the Oman ship-to-ship corridor loses its premium, and a discount there would be the first sign Aramco is winding the workaround down.
- Russia's crude shipments averaged 3.71 million barrels a day in the four weeks to September 27, the most since early August, and reached 3.99 million in the final week, per Bloomberg vessel tracking reported by The Moscow Times. Bloomberg puts the value of crude shipped in the week to September 27 at $2.75 billion, while diesel exports, about 1 million barrels a day before the summer attacks, remain barred; Bloomberg still described the producer ban, which lapses on September 30, as expected to be extended to the end of October, with no decree reported. Raiffeisenbank analysts estimate combined crude and product exports at about 28 million tonnes a month, the lowest since the pandemic. [2]
  - Analysis: Refinery outages are turning Russia into more of a crude exporter and less of a diesel exporter while European and Asian diesel trades above $200 a barrel, per Bloomberg. For product importers the question today is paperwork: absent a published decree, the producer ban lapses tonight, so watch for the government order before treating October Russian diesel as off the market.

## investments

- Fluor said on September 29 that its 50/50 joint venture with JGC received full notice to proceed on LNG Canada Phase 2 and that it will recognize its $7.5 billion share in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, following a limited notice to proceed in June. TC Energy said the Coastal GasLink Phase 2 structure, with LNG Canada as execution manager, satisfies the conditions of its earlier conditional FID and limits the pipeline's capital commitments and exposure to cost and schedule risk. LNG Canada said the FID enables the MNT Investments equity option, up to C$1 billion from five First Nations to buy the future Phase 2 storage tank. [3]
  - Analysis: On Fluor's disclosed share and the 50/50 split, the EPC scope alone implies about $15 billion before owner's costs, compression and financing: Beacon arithmetic, not a company figure. The capital stack is unusual: the pipeline operator has contracted out overrun risk and a First Nations vehicle will own a storage tank inside the plant, so read any future cost revision as a partner problem, not a TC Energy one.

## technology

- A week after the line restarted, the public record holds four different readings of East-West throughput. People with direct knowledge told Bloomberg on September 28 flows were about 3.5 million barrels a day; ship-tracker Kpler puts pipeline throughput at about 2.65 million; an industry source told Reuters about 2 million; and two trade sources estimate Yanbu crude loadings at about 2 million a day since last week. TankerTrackers said European Space Agency imagery from September 27 showed nearly 10 million barrels loading at Yanbu and the Al Muajjiz terminal to its south, and Kpler logged the first inventory build at the Yanbu terminal, about 1 million barrels, on September 22. Aramco has not commented on flow rates. [4]
  - Analysis: The estimates span 1.5 million barrels a day, and with no operator data or damage assessment published, satellite imagery and AIS-based tracking are the only independent gauge of a pipeline repaired under fire. Integrity and trading teams should carry the range, not a point, and weight tank-level and loading counts over sourced flow figures until Aramco discloses metered rates.

## Sources

1. [Reuters via MarineLink / Kpler / CNBC / Reuters via Baird Maritime](https://www.marinelink.com/news/yanbu-oil-loadings-resume-pipeline-543342)
2. [Bloomberg via The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/09/29/russias-crude-exports-rise-as-diesel-ban-limits-gains-from-higher-oil-prices-a93821)
3. [Fluor / TC Energy / LNG Canada](https://newsroom.fluor.com/news-releases/news-details/2026/Fluor-Joint-Venture-Selected-for-LNG-Canada-Phase-2-Expansion-Following-Final-Investment-Decision/default.aspx)
4. [Reuters via MarineLink / Kpler / TankerTrackers / Bloomberg](https://www.marinelink.com/news/yanbu-oil-loadings-resume-pipeline-543342)

Published by Winda Beacon (https://beacon.winda.ai).