Beacon brief: Thursday, October 1, 2026

Russia extended its ban on diesel exports by fuel producers to October 31, the government said on September 30, citing domestic market stability and harvest-season demand, per The Moscow Times and Reuters. A separate ban on diesel exports by non-producers runs through January, jet fuel exports stay barred through November and a total gasoline export ban runs through January. Ukraine's military claimed last week it had knocked out more than 45 percent of Russian refining capacity, a figure Beacon cannot verify, and Russia's competition regulator said it is investigating 58 cases of suspected price gouging by independent filling-station chains.¹

The White House said President Trump would announce $200 billion of South Korean investment in US projects on September 30, including about $54 billion directed to Alaska LNG, the North Slope pipeline and 20 million tonne a year export project, per Reuters. Developer Glenfarne proposes a first phase delivering gas to Alaskan consumers through a 739-mile line and a second phase extending it to 807 miles with liquefaction at Nikiski; the White House puts pipeline throughput at about 3.9 Bcf/d. Glenfarne has not taken a final investment decision and still needs binding offtake agreements and financing commitments, and critics in Seoul have questioned the project's commercial terms, per Reuters and The Alaska Landmine.²

Aliko Dangote and Kenyan President William Ruto broke ground on September 30 on a $16 billion, 700,000 b/d refinery at Lamu, Kenya, with completion targeted for 2030, per Semafor and the International Centre for Investigative Reporting. The heads of state of Uganda, Benin and Togo and Ethiopia's prime minister attended. Neither report named a crude supply contract or a financing package.³

Two banks using different tracking methods reached different readings of Gulf supply. JPMorgan puts Middle East crude shipments at 17.5 million b/d, 98 percent of pre-war levels, but refined product flows at 3 million b/d, 58 percent, with Hormuz transits back near late-June highs of about 13 million b/d. Goldman Sachs, counting clandestine dark flows, puts Gulf oil exports at 23.3 million b/d over the last week, in line with the 2025 average, and notes Iranian exports falling as Saudi exports more than doubled in September, per Bloomberg via gCaptain. JPMorgan wrote that higher crossings reflect the industry's ability to operate under sustained risk, not improved safety.⁴