Aramco pumps close to 6 million barrels a day through the East-West pipeline, over 80 percent of capacity, three weeks after drone strikes shut it

Where it stands

Aramco is pumping close to 6 million barrels a day through the East-West pipeline, more than 80 percent of its 7 million barrel-a-day capacity, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named, per Bloomberg ¹. After supplies to refineries on the kingdom's west coast, about 4.5 million barrels a day is available for export ². Aramco and the energy ministry did not respond to requests for comment outside working hours ². The figure is unconfirmed by the operator, and neither Aramco nor the ministry has published the extent of the damage or the state of repairs.

What happened

Projectiles launched from Iraq forced the line to halt last month, per Bloomberg, and Saudi Arabia shifted shipments to the Gulf through Hormuz while it was down ¹. The pipeline restarted on September 22 ¹. On September 28, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg at least 3.5 million barrels a day was moving to the Red Sea, about half of capacity, with roughly 1.5 million barrels a day likely allocated to west-coast refineries; a person familiar had said earlier in September that full resumption could take about six weeks ³.

Loadings of crude and refined products resumed at Yanbu on September 30, after Aramco notified customers of its October loading schedule, per Bloomberg; at that point industry sources put throughput at about 2 million barrels a day and Kpler estimated 2.65 million, with 3 to 4 million expected ¹. By October 2, Bloomberg reported flows close to 6 million barrels a day, and said west-coast export volumes had reached war-time highs as feed to domestic refineries was trimmed ^{1 2}. Bloomberg also noted JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs estimates that Saudi flows have helped push Middle East exports back toward pre-war levels ².

Analysis

What it means

The line has gone from about half of capacity to more than 80 percent in roughly a week, well ahead of the six-week full-resumption estimate and the 3 to 4 million barrel expectation logged at the Yanbu restart. That speed is the integrity question. A long-distance trunk line restarted at low rate after strikes on pump stations is now running close to its upper range, and the only public evidence of its condition is throughput reported by an unnamed source. Integrity teams with exposure to the Red Sea route should treat this as a fast pressure ramp on recently repaired equipment and watch for any rate step-down, which would be the first public sign of a constraint.

The export arithmetic matters as much as the throughput. At 6 million barrels a day with 4.5 million available for export, west-coast refineries are drawing about 1.5 million (Beacon arithmetic), so part of the gain in exportable crude comes from trimmed domestic refinery feed rather than the pipeline alone. Buyers should not read 4.5 million as a stable rate until refinery runs on the west coast are known. The signals to watch are an on-record confirmation from Aramco or the energy ministry, Aramco's November loading schedule for Yanbu, and tanker-tracking counts of what actually loads there. The exposure has not changed: everything this pipeline delivers still loads at Yanbu, where Bloomberg reported in September that the Houthis had stepped up attacks on energy infrastructure.