Trump waives the Graham Act's Russia sanctions and 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil two days before they were due to apply

Where it stands

The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act remains law, but its new penalties are switched off: President Trump's order waives "the application of such sanctions, restrictions, and duties provided for in the Graham Act" after he certified to Congress that doing so is in the national interest ^{3 5}. The penalties were due to take effect on October 18 ^{5 2}. The waiver has no set expiry and runs until the president or the secretary of state decides further action is needed; sanctions imposed under earlier executive orders on Russian individuals and entities stay in force ². A White House spokesperson said the president "retains the ability to exercise these authorities at any time" ⁵. As of this edition, none of the reports read listed every provision covered, and none said how the Act's shadow fleet measures are treated.

What happened

Trump signed the order on Friday, October 16, and the White House posted the decision late that evening, telling Congress the pause was "in the national interest" without immediately explaining how ¹. The Act directs tariffs of up to 100 percent on goods from the five largest importers of Russian oil or gas, with an exemption for countries that take less than 15 percent of Russia's gas exports and are cutting them ⁴. Among the measures waived are a 500 percent increase in duties on goods from Russia, the 100 percent tariffs on the top five buyers of Russian crude and gas for knowing new purchases from October 18, and similar duties on countries identified as leading facilitators of Russian oil sanctions evasion ². The US Trade Representative, with the Treasury, State and Energy departments, is to keep monitoring Russian oil and gas purchases and sanctions evasion and report anything that could warrant further action ².

Bloomberg Government reported that the measures complicated the president's effort to lower diesel prices before the midterm elections ³. The order followed the October 9 diesel deal with Moscow, which came with a Treasury license for Russian diesel transactions, including US imports, through April 7, 2027 ⁵. The AP noted that the deal starts with 300,000 tons of diesel and rises to larger volumes ¹. On October 18, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview with Vesti that the diesel would go to the US mainly on Aframax tankers of about 100,000 tons and would reach the market 15 to 20 days after contracts are signed; he named no buyers and gave no volumes ⁸.

Time reported that the waiver lets Russian oil keep flowing to importers such as China and India; Columbia's Tatiana Mitrova said it "may prevent additional market disruptions, but it does not itself create new supply" ⁵. Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev called the move "an important and truly historic moment" ⁴. Republican Senator Thom Tillis called it "beyond irresponsible" ⁵, and Representative Steny Hoyer said on October 18 that the order exempts Russia from "energy sanctions" ⁷. President Zelenskiy called the pause unfortunate and urged support for the Act, which he said "could have helped enormously" ⁶.

Analysis

What it means

The order changes who carries risk on Russian barrels, but it adds none. For the market, the penalty that mattered was the threat of 100 percent tariffs on the largest buyers of Russian crude. With that threat removed for now, refiners in India and China can keep running Russian crude without a new US trade penalty, and the supply route Washington was set to squeeze from October 18 stays open.

For compliance and commercial teams, three things stay the same. The waiver can be withdrawn at any time with no notice period. Designations under earlier executive orders still apply. And the reports do not show whether the Act's shadow fleet measures are covered. So vessel and counterparty screening at terminals and on charters does not loosen, and any contract priced on the waiver should carry a sanctions-change clause. The bigger exposure is to Congress, not Treasury. Lawmakers in both parties have attacked the move, and an amendment that limits the national-interest waiver would bring the tariffs straight back.

Watch for: the first Russian diesel contracts under General License 135 (Novak's 15-to-20-day clock starts at signing), any USTR monitoring report, and any bill to limit the waiver before the November 3 midterms.